Thursday, December 15, 2005

Let me preface this by saying, I’m always right.

Upon getting into an argument with people I used to call friends, I realized how vastly superior I am intellectually.

The subject of eBay bidding came up, and the method of bid-in-the-last-5-minutes was espoused (yes, I LIKE the passive voice). They defended it by claiming it helped you to pay the least and it helped you to “win.” Realizing how much could improve their spiritual state by berating them, I quickly resorted to an argument and finally fisticuffs.

I espouse the Bid-the-MAX-you-are-willing-to-pay method. Bid once. Determine how much it’s worth to you, bid that. Or

float bid; //init the amount we want to bid
bid = findWorth(object) – shippingCost(object); //take into account the cost of shipping
placeBid(bid);

This works, and it allows you to know early on when you are outbid so you can move on and attempt to find the same or similar item elsewhere without ever paying too much. Thus you don’t waste a week expecting to buy this item, only to be outbid at the last second by someone you outbid a week ago. If they were really willing to pay $1more than me, why not have just posted their bid that high? I could have moved on instead of waiting for the legally (ort least honor) binding agreement to end, because I sure as heck ain’t gonna pay twice for the same object.

What the bid-at-the-last-second bidders don’t realize is that the point is not to “win”. The point is to Buy. And to buy smart. I shall illustrate with a true tale of danger and intrigue. I once was boy. Call me Tom. Tom is a fitting enough name for a boy. But what you don’t know about this boy is that he was on a mission. He had shopped online to find the cheapest he could buy some used Beatles CDs. The cheapest he could find from a reseller was $20. So he went onto eBay and bid $16 because he was smart enough to take into account the cost of shipping and knew that for every dollar below $16 he paid, he saved that much more on the purchase. A week later, he was outbid by the same two people he had outbid earlier. They had both attempted to bid at the last second, and so they raced each other. The winner paid $30. Idiots. So instead Tom paid $20, and the CDs arrived a week later than they should have because incompetent people had wasted his time since they were willing to pay more but only at the last second.

But alas, perfect logic was no match for them. So I must resort to quoting eBay itself.

Consider your buying options
Determine the maximum you're willing to pay for the item. Take into consideration how much you want the item, how difficult it will be for you to find another one and how soon you need it, and determine the highest price you're willing to pay.

Here's how bidding on eBay works:
When you place a bid, you enter the maximum amount you'd be willing to pay for the item. Your maximum amount is kept confidential from other bidders and the seller.
The eBay system compares your bid to those of the other bidders.
The system places bids on your behalf, using only as much of your bid as is necessary to maintain your high bid position (or to meet the reserve price). The system will bid up to your maximum amount.
If another bidder has a higher maximum, you'll be outbid. BUT, if no other bidder has a higher maximum, you win the item. And you could pay significantly less than your maximum price! This means you don't have to keep coming back to re-bid every time another bid is placed.

QED: I am awesome.

15 comments:

  1. I disagree with you entire premise. The point is to buy for a reasonable price, and to do this you must win, making winning more important than you indicate.

    Your scenario takes for granted that the item to be purchased can be purchased for a reasonable price elsewhere. I myself like to keep an eye out for rare Catholic books, which are usually not in print anymore or which cost too much to buy from a retailer. These often show up on ebay.

    My experience has led me to conclude that it is smarter to bid in the last few minutes to stifle the price rise.

    Example:
    Mary sees a rare Catholic book on ebay that she would like to purchase. It is priced at 0.99 with no bids. Catherine sees the same book and also wants to purchase it. The retail price at a used book store is $89.95.

    Three scenarios could occur:
    1) Mary places the first bid at 0.99 with a maximum bid of $3.00. Catherine tries to outbid Mary with $3.05 and a max bid of $5.00. Mary logs back in on day 4 of 7 and successfully outbids Catherine with $5.05 and a max bid of $10.00. On day 6, Catherine bids $10.05 with a max bid of $17.00. On the last day, with five minutes to go, both girls login, and the bidding race begins. Mary ups the price to $23.00, Catherine bids $25.00, and Mary finally wins by getting her bid of $29.50 in at the last second.

    2) Mary places the first bid at 0.99. Catherine waits until the last five minutes to make a bid of $1.05 and a max bid of $3.00. Mary counters with a bid of $3.05 and a max bid of $5.00. This is all the time there is in the auction, so Mary wins with a bid of $5.00 as opposed to $29.50.

    3) Neither girl bids on the item until the last minute. Neither knows anyone else is interested in the item. The first bid (0.99, max bid at 3.00) appears with one minute of the aution left, placed by Mary. Catherine counters with $3.05 and wins the auction.

    All three scenarios allow a person to purchase the book for under what it is worth. But why pay $29.50 when you can have the same book for $3.05 with a different strategy?

    So, Tom, your logic only works if you are purchasing an item that you can purchase somewhere else, and also if you are willing to purchase it for full price if you lose.

    However flawed your logic is in this post, I still agree with your last sentence.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Another thing: of course ebay wants you to enter your maximum bid at the very beginning of the auction. That will drive up the price as other people decide they will pay more for the item, resulting in higher seller profits for ebay.

    ReplyDelete
  3. But how do I get a stator coil for an FZR600 (any year, '90-'97) and get a "good" deal on it. Yeah, you can buy one for $200, but I have purchased entire engines for $300.

    Ideally, I am "willing" to pay <$20 for a new-to-me stator. However the nature of these items is they go bad, so there is no guarentee that it will work.

    ~The Blue Fox

    ReplyDelete
  4. Huzzah! A person with intelligence! This is why I never have, and probably never will, buy something off Ebay. The last-second-bidding is utterly ludicrous.

    Tom, you bring up a good point, but a corollary of the infinite packing rule throws an avoidable wrench into the system. For those of you who don't know, the infinite packing rule was developed by Dave when packing for college. It states that you can fit an infinite number of small things into a suit case of finite size by packing them one at a time. It is demonstrated through empirical evidence as thus: 1) Take any ordinary suitcase of finite volume. 2) Fill suitcase with clothes to the point where it is full. 3) Add a small item, such as a pocket book, or small envelope. 4) Attempt to close the suitcase. Repeat steps 3 & 4 until the suitcase will not close.

    You know what? The suitcase will always close. Note that you can only add small things one at a time. If you add a bunch of small things all at once, it will not work. The Infinite Packing Rule is dependent on small things being added one at a time. This rule also has several other corollaries, such as the infinite M&Ms rule, that states you can eat an infinite number of M&Ms without getting sick by eating them one at a time, instead of by the handful. Think about it: eating one M&M will not make you puke no matter how many you've already had. If I cram a handful in my mouth, maybe, but not 1. So if I've eaten 10 bags already, I can always eat 1 more.

    There's also the Ebay corollary that states for a product that is not obtainable at a fixed price in stores, one is willing to pay an infinite amount of money for it. For instance, if I find that some one has placed a Ms. Pacman Cabinet for sale, and I want it for the living room, if I'm willing to pay $100 for it, then I could easily raise my bid by a dollar and pay $101. Now if I can pay $101 for it, I can afford to pay $102, etc. Therefore, I'm willing to pay an infinite amount of money. So the concept of the "maximum bid" does not apply for rare items in circumstances where bids are increased by small amounts. I can't just put in a maximum bid and leave it, because if someone has that same maximum bid as me, they'll just raise theirs by a dollar to outbid me.

    My solution to this problem is to limit the number of bids a person can make on an item to 1. Each person is allowed only 1 bid per item. You enter the maximum amount you want to pay and that's it. If you enter that and it turns out some one is still higher than you, tough. You can't just continually increment your bid by $1 until you've beaten their bid.

    If I ran the world, that's the way Ebay would work.

    And as long as I'm dreaming, I'd like a pony.

    ReplyDelete
  5. To look at Cari's example in my Perfect World Ebay, Mary and Catherine both see the book and decide they want it. Mary decides she would be willing to pay around $15 for the book and puts that in as her maximum bid. Catherine logs on and sees that there is a bid of $.99 on it, but has no idea what Mary's actual bid is. She thinks about it and decides to put in a bid of $20. This beats Mary's bid and raises the current bid to $15.05. Since Mary has already bid, she can't fight an incrementing bid war to drive up the price, so it doesn't matter whether these bids were placed within the first or last 5 minutes. In the end, Catherine gets the book for $15.05 either way.

    Granted in this system, it is likely that you may end up paying more, but the winner will not necessarily be the person who bids in the last 30 seconds, and "bid camping" is $%&!ing Petarded!

    ReplyDelete
  6. Auctions are designed for the seller or they wouldn't award the highest bidder. That being said, paying more than $5.00 is how it is supposed to work. The winner is supposed to be the one who wants it more.

    Cari, in your example, there are two problems. Catherine is an idiot and Mary is a jerk. If Cathrine was really willing to pay $25, she should have said so upfront. Mary could have outbid her and Catherine could move on to a different auction of the same thing. Or maybe Mary's internet connection would be to sluggish and she'd spend the night incrimenting by one dollar up to $26 and miss the deadline. Point is, if Mary only had $24 to spend cause she was too poor, Catherine would have won. Now second problem is that Mary is a jerk. She led Catherine to believe that the book was within Catherine's budget yet she never intended to pay less than Catherine. That's like a kid who only wants a toy when some other kid is playing with it. If Mary wanted it bad enough to the tune of $29.50, she should have bid that much. Catherine who only wants it as bad as $25 would have quit and Mary would have won anyway.

    The problem is that by bidding at the last second you are paying what you are obviously willing to pay for the item, but you led honest buyers on for maybe a week when you intended opay more than them anyway, thus prolonging their "lack" of something. And you never kept thprice lower than they were willing to pay. You are only beating other people like you who are racing each other in a weight lifting contest.

    SPELLED OUT FOR THOSE THAT STILL HAVEN'T UNDERSTOOD: You will never beat me in an eBay auction in the last five minutes if you couldn't beat me in the first five minutes. So don't wait to outbid me.

    And that is how the system is built. Please stop making it unenjoyable or the rest of us.

    ReplyDelete
  7. On another note... I've never lost an item on eBay. I'm uber!


    ~RlrlrlRLRLLRLGRLGRLGlglglglgl-mummble...~

    ReplyDelete
  8. This debate illustrates a fundamental difference between men and women. Women will haggle and get what they want for under what they think it acceptable to pay. Men are content to pay the maximum acceptable price for an item, but this is worth it to them to avoid the haggling.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Not a fundamental difference between men and women; a fundamental difference between Cari and Tom.

    Some men haggle. Some women don't. Any generalizations will be inaccurate.

    ReplyDelete
  10. I think all Joes are right.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Yeah, but no Caris are never right none of the time... ever.

    ReplyDelete
  12. "maximum acceptable" price? I'll always buy stuff cheaply, like when I drive to work noting all the gas prices on the way, and buy gas on the way home from the cheapest one. I just won't price race a customer at a Texaco past the cheapest price I saw on the drive to work. And I let the eBay server do the haggling for me anyway.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Aaah, so good that Tom is back. What wit!

    ReplyDelete
  14. Woohoo! Jeff Welter has found my virtual home on the net! Welcome! Good to hear from ya, buddy.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Hey Joe,

    I knew about your site since last June and have been posting regularly as "anonymous"

    Now, I could form a blog of my own, but your life is much more exciting and entertaining than mine

    ReplyDelete